After a short relief in the summer, prices for many fertilizers are again pointing upwards. The situation is particularly tense in Europe, especially after many fertilizer producers stopped operation in view of tight natural gas supplies and high energy prices. Elsewhere in the world, a range of policy measures such as export restrictions and sanctions continue limiting global fertilizer availabilities, with international shipments severely restrained from Belarus, China and the Russian Federation – all of which leading suppliers of fertilizer to the world.

With preparations for the 2023/24 season soon to begin, low fertilizer availability and high prices risk negatively affecting plantings and yields. Not surprisingly, therefore, fears are mounting that the turmoil in fertilizer markets might constitute a serious threat to global food security.

This seminar provided an overview of the current state of global fertilizer markets and assessed the implications for farmer profitability and agricultural production. It also discussed main trends in energy markets and how these trends might affect fertilizer availability and prices before offering a regional perspective on main challenges and solutions.

Presentations (moderated by Arnaud Petit, Executive Director, International Grains Council)

• John Baffes (World Bank): Overview of energy markets
• Laura Cross (International Fertilizer Association): Outlook for global fertilizer markets
• Josef Schmidhuber (FAO): Tracking global fertilizer trade
• David Laborde (IFPRI): Implications for farmer profitability

Discussion panel (moderated by Seth Meyer, AMIS Chair and Chief Economist, USDA)

• Shawn Arita: United States Department of Agriculture, US
• Rajiv Kumar: The Rice Exporters Association, India
• Ferdie Meyer: Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, South Africa
• Fabien Santini: European Commission, EU
• Agustin Tejeda: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires, Argentina