Global changes in soybean production and consumption are reshaping global markets. This seminar will explore the market outlook for soybeans and vegetable oils, and examine the implications of the US biodiesel industry and recent developments in South American soybean production.

International oilseed prices have fallen considerably since last year's highs while world soybean production is likely to hit a record in 2023/24, with global ending stocks projected to rebuild for the second consecutive year. As in previous year, global soybean trade continues to be driven by China, which accounts for about 60 percent of total soybean imports. On the exporter side, however, increased biodiesel production in the United States has diverted more soybean production to be crushed domestically, reducing soybean exports. Conversely, Brazil and other suppliers have seen their market shares grow. In 2023/24, Brazil is projected to account for almost 58 percent of total soybean exports.

PROGRAMME:

• Opening remarks: Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI and interim Secretary of AMIS
• Market Situation and Outlook for Soybeans: Di Yang, Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
• Growth of the US biodiesel Industry and its implication for the Global Soybean Market: Joanna Hitchner, Chair, Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC) for Oilseeds, World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA
• Vegetable Oils: Some Observations on World Markets and Trade: Darren Cooper, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Economist/Commodities Analyst, International Grains Council
• Recent Developments in the South American Soybean Complex: Ramiro Costa, Chief Economist, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
• Moderator: Seth Meyer, USDA Chief Economist and AMIS chair