Markets at a glance

In October 2024, wheat prices reached multi-month highs due to weather-related planting delays in parts of the northern hemisphere, although they later eased as field conditions improved. Maize prices also strengthened slightly despite swift harvest progress in the United States while rice and soybean quotations declined. Vegetable oil prices increased, resulting from further tightening in market fundamentals. India removed its minimum export price for non-basmati white rice, while import restrictions were eased in Türkiye (maize) and Bangladesh (rice, vegetable oils). If La Niña conditions develop in the coming months, they are expected to be weak and short-lived. Finally, FAO Food Price Index, a benchmark index for world food commodity prices, reached its highest level since April 2023 driven mainly by higher vegetable oil prices.

• Wheat production in 2024 estimate trimmed but still above last year’s level, supported by bigger harvests in several countries, including Australia, China, Kazakhstan, and the US.
• Utilization in 2024/25 now on par with the 2023/24 level following this month’s upward revision stemming from higher feed use, especially in Asia.
• Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) unchanged m/m and still set to decline from 2023/24 largely due to reduced imports by China and the EU, and smaller exports from the EU, Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
• Stocks (ending in 2025) lowered further this month and expected to decline below opening levels, with most of the drawdown concentrated in the EU and Russian Federation.

• Maize production forecast for 2024 revised down mostly on lower expected outputs in Nigeria, Russian Federation, and Ukraine, further deepening the anticipated decline from the 2023 level.
• Utilization in 2024/25 nearly unchanged this month and still forecast to rise slightly above the 2023/24 level driven by an increase in feed use.
• Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) lowered slightly and still headed for a contraction from 2023/24 largely reflecting a decrease in purchases by China and exports from Brazil and Ukraine.
• Stocks (ending in 2025) cut m/m with downward revisions in Brazil, China, and the US, but still forecast to rise slightly above opening levels.

• Rice production forecast trimmed, as downward revisions namely for Bangladesh, Mali and Nepal are partly compensated by upgrades most notably for Egypt, Nigeria and Thailand.
• Utilization in 2024/25 raised marginally m/m and still seen expanding to a fresh peak.
• Trade in 2025 upgraded, with the removal of export restrictions on non-broken rice in India boosting export prospects for the country, while the export outlook deteriorates most notably for Thailand.
• Stocks (2024/25 carry-outs) reduced somewhat, primarily on less buoyant reserve expectations for India. Nonetheless, global stockpiles still seen expanding to all-time highs.

• Soybean 2024/25 production virtually stable m/m, reflecting expectations of record outputs following improving weather conditions in South America.
• Utilization in 2024/25 lifted marginally, with upward revisions for Argentina, Egypt, the Russian Federation and Ukraine mostly offset by lower forecasts for several other countries.
• Trade in 2024/25 (Oct/Sep) revised up fractionally, underpinned by higher import forecasts for Argentina, Egypt and the EU, while export projections are lifted for Brazil.
• Stocks (2024/25 carry-out) scaled up, primarily reflecting an upward adjustment for China following historical revisions.