Although conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, a La Niña watch has been declared, with the probability of La Niña conditions in the November–February timeframe being in the order of 60-65 percent. By comparison, the typical probability during these months is 35 percent.

Should La Niña materialize, above normal rains could occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, Southern Africa, and Southeast Asia. Drier than normal conditions may prevail in southwest Asia, the Horn of Africa, southeastern South America, and the southern US.