The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a UN-supported agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, was signed on 22 July 2022. It has allowed for exports of grains and related foods to resume from three Ukrainian ports which had been effectively blocked since mid-February, first by Russian military exercises, then by mines placed by Ukraine to prevent possible sea-based attacks. Ukraine ships almost 75 percent of its agricultural exports through the ports on the Black Sea - about half of them through the three ports covered by the initiative.

As of mid-November, over ten million tonnes of grains, oilseeds and other foodstuffs had been exported under the agreement, significantly easing pressure on regional markets and on Ukrainian farmers previously unable to move their products. Outside of Ukraine, the agreement has been particularly important for countries that are highly dependent on Ukrainian agricultural products such as those in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Despite these successes, the agreement has been subject to much criticism from the start. Among other things, the Russian Federation has claimed that the deal would mainly benefit high-income countries. However, both European and MENA countries saw their maize imports increase dramatically after the signing of the agreement and receive roughly the same proportions as in 2021. Meanwhile, some of the poorest countries, in particular in Sub-Saharan Africa, received the same share as last year in wheat exports. In addition, about 150,000 tonnes of wheat have been exported through the World Food Programme to poor countries in the Horn of Africa and to Afghanistan.

Partly thanks to the deal, market prices for wheat, maize and other commodities have stabilized at pre-war levels; however, they remain 50 percent higher, or more, than January 2020 levels. Any new disruptions in Black Sea shipments will likely increase pressure on world food prices, especially for wheat, and immediately disrupt key grain supplies for MENA countries that were benefiting from the resumption of Ukraine exports.

Effects for Ukrainian farmers would be particularly deleterious as they would likely see lower domestic prices, which would create further disincentives to plant for next crop year. A drop in 2023 production would mean the third straight year of disruptions to the Ukraine wheat crop, which typically accounted for about 10 percent of global exports prior to the war. In such scenario, global wheat stocks will likely not recover for at least another year, meaning continued high prices and volatile markets. This would be a setback for efforts to reduce the impacts of the war in Ukraine on global consumers and preserve food security.