The collapse of the Kakhovka dam in southeastern Ukraine raises alarm for the region's agriculture. While initial concerns focused mostly on the impact of the flooding, the main risk is lack of irrigation water.

Four main canals snake from the Kakhovka reservoir to provide irrigation water for more than 500,000 hectares of farmland—a necessity for the semi-arid croplands on both sides of the Dnipro river. According to official government statistics, the croplands surrounding the reservoir produced about two million tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2021, mostly wheat, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed along with a variety of vegetables and fruits, including major production of melons.

After the dam’s collapse, settlements and cropland downstream experienced significant flooding across more than 40,000 hectares of land, according to satellite data analysis, with over 46 towns and villages affected. Despite initial fears, the agricultural area flooded was minimal with approximately 1,000 hectares of cropland flooded. However, upstream of the dam, all major irrigation canal inlets were disconnected from the dam within a few days after its collapse as the reservoir’s water levels dropped rapidly. While the canals still retained water at the end of June 2023, they will likely dry out as the summer season progresses.

The irrigation canals primarily serve summer crops such as maize, soybeans, and sunflowers as well as fruits and vegetables, but they also provide water to winter crops like wheat. Precipitation cannot always meet crop requirements in this semi-arid area, so the canals played a critical role in ensuring water supplies for irrigation. Immediate attention will have to be paid to the growing conditions of summer crops currently in the ground. However, as planting of next year’s winter wheat approaches in late summer/early fall, farmers will also have to decide on the feasibility of a successful harvest given limited water supply compared to previous years.

With Ukraine being a major grain and oilseed exporter, variations in the country’s production can have big impacts not only on its own population but also on global supplies and associated prices, particularly for countries that heavily depend on imports from Ukraine. 2022 already saw significant concern over the availability of Ukrainian agricultural exports after the outbreak of war in the country. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the drying up of the irrigation canals will no doubt cast additional concern over agricultural production and export shortages.

Issues from the destruction of the Kakhovka dam will continue well beyond the 2023 planting and harvest seasons. It will take time for the dam to be rebuilt, the reservoir to refill, and the canals to flow again. AMIS will continue monitoring croplands in Ukraine and provide monthly transparent updates through the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor reports.