The current strong El Niño is forecast to peak around the beginning of 2016, to remain strong throughout the southern hemisphere summer season, and to dissipate finally by mid-year. This portends a second year of drought in South Africa. Dry conditions are likewise expected to continue in Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. September rainfall was below average for most of Australia, and El Niño brings suppressed spring (October-December) rainfall in the eastern half of the country.

In contrast, abundant rainfall is forecast for the summer growing season of southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. Wetter than average conditions are also forecast for the winter precipitation season in the high mountain areas of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan, building up snow pack for the 2016 summer irrigation season. In North America, expectations are for warmer than average temperatures across Canada and the northern US, and wetter than average conditions across the southern half of the US – nurturing hope for drought relief in California. Meanwhile, humanitarian agencies are mobilizing to deal with major El Niño food security impacts due to drought in Guatemala, Haiti, Malawi, and Ethiopia.