According to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, the ongoing El Niño peaked in late 2015 and is now in decline. Models indicate that the transition to neutral conditions will be complete by about June. However, drought is expected to continue in Southeast Asia and across northern South America, including northeast Brazil. In Southern Africa, drought impacts on crop production are widespread and severe. In Central Asia, the expected above-average precipitation has not materialized, and winter snow pack is now below normal.

In North America, southern California has likewise not received the good rains often associated with El Niño, and remains in the grip of drought, accompanied by hot temperatures. Northern California has fared somewhat better, but not well enough to emerge from multi-year drought. The Great Lakes region is projected to continue to be warmer and drier than usual through spring. No El Niño impacts are anticipated in the main summer growing season of the US, Canada, Europe, and western Russia.

Thereafter, neutral conditions could persist through the last quarter of 2016, or we could see transition to La Niña. Odds of reverting to El Niño are low. A review of past El Niño events and model projections for October-December 2016 puts the probabilities at approximately 50 percent for La Niña, 40 percent for neutral, and 10 percent for El Niño.